Here's the run home for the top four teams. The other teams aren't a realistic chance, although the Cats and North could do some damage.

It most likely gets down to the two games each play against the other top three. It's a relatively friendly draw for the Swans. That means a) a good chance of a home final and b) a lot more Swans conspiracy palava.

We play Hawks in Round 18 at the G and Port in Round 20 in Adelaide. Those are the only top eight sides in our draw, though technically, Essendon, Carlton AND the Tigers all finished in the eight last year.

Six of the Hawks' last nine games are against top sides, plus the Crows. See b) above.

(Brackets = number of games against top 8 sides)

Port 44 148.5 (4)
Hawks 40 145.7 (6)
Swans 40 135.4 (2)
Freo 36 134.2 (3)

Cats 36 106.4
Cwd 32 113.6
North 32 111.1
Suns 32 105.8

PORT: 4 Crows (AO), Ess (AO), Tigers (ES), Mel (AO), Col (MCG), Swans (AO), Suns (MS), Car (AO), Dockers (PS)

HAWKS: 6 Suns (AS), North (ES), Crows (AO), Swans (MCG), Bulldogs (AU), Mel (MCG), Freo (PS), Cats (MCG), Cwd (MCG)

SWANS:2 GWS (SCG), Eagles (PS), Carl (SCG), Haw (MCG), Ess (SCG), Port (AO), Saints (SCG), Bulldogs (ES), Tigers (ANZ)

FREO: 3Eagles (PS), Mel (TIO), Giants (PS), Saints (ES), Car (ES), Cats (SS), Haw (PS), Lions (G), Port (PS)