What does last night mean?

[dendol]

yep, thought that would be the case. We simply aren't good enough against the tops teams. I hope Roos continues to give the kids games and not suddenly bring back Mathews et al in an attempt to try something new.

[NMWBloods]

Well, today probably means what the worst perspective of last week means. My optimistic outlook of where we are going and last week was an aberration looks wrong. My objective view at the start of the year that we will simply make up numbers in finals and the view during the season that our 'easy' draw has flattered us thus far looks increasingly correct. Most important will be to see how we can progress and plan for next year.

[dendol]

That's certainly quite a possibility. In a complete volte face to my OP it could quite conceivably be argued that the team is currently at a crossroads and in hindsight the Collingwood game was a turning point. Is the vaunted Bloods culture failing?

On frequent occasions in the past when a premiership team tries to hang on too long (eg: Ess & NM earlier this decade, Haw & Coll early 90s, Rich & NM early to mid 80s) it has ended up dropping back significantly.

We are prime candidates with still a lot of older players in the side from our GF years. They are battling on manfully but it remains to be seen whether they have enough left in them for another go at finals. If not then it could be the beginnings of a down period. I thought that the beginning of the year we would have a down period but the past couple of months suggested perhaps not. At this stage it's really difficult to tell.

At this stage, our kids and old blokes are good enough to beat the crap teams by just playing footy, but our coach is not good enough to come up with a plan to get close to the teams equal or better than us.

Our previous games against Hawthorn have mostly been attacking affairs and it will be interesting to see if our players have the confidence to continue with the gameplan that was so successful before the break, or if they have gone back into their shells and revert to the awful tactics we saw against the pies.

[robamiee]

I think last night, is just a hump in the road..
Geelong had a shocker against the pies and we had a shocker, yet only went down by 5 goals...which is not much in todays game...

Most sides will have a shocker in the year, i think this was ours..
we did show in the fourth what we can do, and i think it is something we need to do against the pies is just throw caution to the wind against them...

Our boys who have knee injuries looked very cautious on that pathetic surface on the night you could see in their approach (maljescki, kennelly).

Bird needs to start being that outside midefielder we desperately need.

That was clear what we lacked on the night a game breaking outside midfielder, plus some better goal kicking, whether the surface had something to do with it, as both sides struggled on the night.

[dendol]

Who are you, and what have you done with NMWBloods???

Agree with what you said. Yep, one loss doesn't mean.
We haven't been playing great footy for a while, only better than our opponent, and last night our opponent managed to play better than us, which wasn't hard.
And at finals time, it is a brand new ball game.

After last year's embarrassing KO in the EF, we no longer have that finals aura about us. Its not that difficult to play better than your Richmonds or Essendons this year and we have now shown we just cant match it with the teams above or around us.

Perhaps I've had my expectations raised higher than it should have been this year and instead of focusing on flag chances and top 4, it should be about the solid core of talent we have coming through.

[NMWBloods]

whats worrying is that we have to play our two bogey teams in 2 of our remaining games. They will be 8 point games and, reasonably assuming we will lose both (last night proved we have not learnt a thing against the pies so we'll probably get done by the Crows), we will have to win all our games against Hawthorn, Geelong and Bulldogs to get 4th. All this assuming we win our "gimmes" against the Blues, Dockers and Lions.

Hope Im wrong, but last night's performance was so disturbing that I think it is more of a reflection of our true level compared to our 6 previous wins against teams in the bottom half of the ladder.

That's certainly quite a possibility. In a complete volte face to my OP it could quite conceivably be argued that the team is currently at a crossroads and in hindsight the Collingwood game was a turning point. Is the vaunted Bloods culture failing?

On frequent occasions in the past when a premiership team tries to hang on too long (eg: Ess & NM earlier this decade, Haw & Coll early 90s, Rich & NM early to mid 80s) it has ended up dropping back significantly.

We are prime candidates with still a lot of older players in the side from our GF years. They are battling on manfully but it remains to be seen whether they have enough left in them for another go at finals. If not then it could be the beginnings of a down period. I thought that the beginning of the year we would have a down period but the past couple of months suggested perhaps not. At this stage it's really difficult to tell.

[ash3]

Its been said before but this week will tell if Saturday night was just a bump in the road.

[snajik]

beat brisbane at the gabba

True. Still not overly noteworthy. My jury (all 12 of me) is still out.

[swansrule100]

There's nothing to convince me yet that we are worthy of a top 4 spot. We've beaten no team currently in the eight with the exception of St Kilda who we played at the SCG when they had a number of players out. How we go over the next month or so is anyone's guess.

Hats off to Collingwood. The reason why we didn't play well is because they didn't allow us to play well. Their pressure was disciplined and constant. It resulted in frustration, errors, and turnovers for us and ultimately Collingwood goals. It irks me to say it but they were much smarter. Their inability to sustain their sliding flood for four quarters was probably what let us back into the game, albeit briefly. It was very similar to last year at Homebush. We desperately need a Plan B.

beat brisbane at the gabba

[snajik]

There's nothing to convince me yet that we are worthy of a top 4 spot. We've beaten no team currently in the eight with the exception of St Kilda who we played at the SCG when they had a number of players out. How we go over the next month or so is anyone's guess.

Hats off to Collingwood. The reason why we didn't play well is because they didn't allow us to play well. Their pressure was disciplined and constant. It resulted in frustration, errors, and turnovers for us and ultimately Collingwood goals. It irks me to say it but they were much smarter. Their inability to sustain their sliding flood for four quarters was probably what let us back into the game, albeit briefly. It was very similar to last year at Homebush. We desperately need a Plan B.

[SimonH]

I think what it means if that if we can't beat the Woods in R21, we won't win the flag.

Not because we'll have to beat them in the finals (we probably won't meet them, and if we do, it will probably be because things are already going badly), and not because you have to beat your 'bogy team' to win the flag (you don't). I just think that with the way other results are likely to unfold, that'll be one loss too many for us to make top 4. And if you don't make the top 4, you can't win the flag.

While we have a still-decent gap on 5th right now, our tough upcoming run combined with the fact that 3 teams are chasing (and so odds are that one of them will hit a decent run of form) means that IMO we'll need wins in R21 and 22 (Brisbane @ home) to wrap it up.

For us to beat the Woods in Melbourne is going to be a very, very big ask. If the match was being played this week the bookies would have us at about $4. But on the other hand, the bookies would have us at worse than $4 to win the grannie, so in that sense, it's no biggie.

[ScottH]

Who are you, and what have you done with NMWBloods???

Agree with what you said. Yep, one loss doesn't mean.
We haven't been playing great footy for a while, only better than our opponent, and last night our opponent managed to play better than us, which wasn't hard.
And at finals time, it is a brand new ball game.

[swansrule100]

i think a lot it is people venting on here after last night.'

I do find it annoying how the media change their tune every week. Before the game on ten we were going to win, looked primed in great form a real threat and then after the game every outlet has us in trouble and perhaps unable to compete with the big teams.

Id like to see some consistency in their opinions, that goes for all sides. Give a team more than a week to rate them. Similar thing on here i guess.

I think as has been touched on, you get more of an idea what this week means in say 3-4 weeks. IF we lose them all you can look back on this game as perhaps one that broke the team. If we come out and thump the hawks next week and get back on a roll its a bit like the geelong loss to collingwood, a bit of a hump in the road.

If we play like last night though we will struggle to beat most teams. I think this team at its best can win the flag but it needs a lot of things going its way.

It is a lot better than last night suggests though.

[dendol]

whats worrying is that we have to play our two bogey teams in 2 of our remaining games. They will be 8 point games and, reasonably assuming we will lose both (last night proved we have not learnt a thing against the pies so we'll probably get done by the Crows), we will have to win all our games against Hawthorn, Geelong and Bulldogs to get 4th. All this assuming we win our "gimmes" against the Blues, Dockers and Lions.

Hope Im wrong, but last night's performance was so disturbing that I think it is more of a reflection of our true level compared to our 6 previous wins against teams in the bottom half of the ladder.

[goswannie14]

Possibly nothing!

It never ceases to amaze me the incredible fluctuations in this place. Over the past few weeks we've seen increasing views that we are flag material, regardless of who we have beaten, and nothing is allowed to be said against that without a barrage of "too negative" or "not a true supporter". Then just as quickly, we lose a game and there is a lot of gnashing of teeth and ripping of hair.

By itself I don't think last night's game means an awful lot. We have a couple of bogey teams under Roos and yet again one of them beat us.

Under Roos our record against Collingwood is 3-6 and two of those wins were by a goal or less against a Collingwood in the bottom four. Our other bogey team is Adelaide - 1-7 under Roos.

Despite having these bogey teams we have still managed to win a flag and make a second GF, so it doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot.

We played really really badly but each year we seem to pull out a few shockers. In 2005 we were ordinary to poor in at least half a dozen games. In 2006 we had disappointing losses to Coll, Adel and Geel in the second half of the season.

What's far more important is how we play in the remaining games. That the next two months is critical in the season hasn't changed from a couple of days ago. That we lost to Collingwood last night is not really a surprise to some.

We are still well placed to make the top four. I still think it unlikely we have the team yet (or any more) to progress far in finals this year, however if you get a good run you never know. Nevertheless, we will get a far better indication of what's in store for the team in Sept over the next two months than from last night.

I was expecting to lose last night, (which is not to say I was happy about it). Not only are Collingwood a bogey team to us, but we had just won 6 in a row. How many times have we won more than that in a row in Roos reign? I would think it probably hasn't happened.