2019 ladder prediction for the swans

[Melbourne_Blood]

Never make the mistake of equating the Herald-Sun with the culture of Melbourne. Melbourne's footy culture is far more broadly-based than that. Ill-informed bogans (and those who inform them) are not the whole story.

Spot on there.


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[Blood Fever]

Never make the mistake of equating the Herald-Sun with the culture of Melbourne. Melbourne's footy culture is far more broadly-based than that. Ill-informed bogans (and those who inform them) are not the whole story.

Stand by my comments but they relate purely to footy culture which is a big part of the overall culture but agree not the whole story.

[Bloods05]

Excellent post 2021(premiership year?). Melbourne journos in parochial bubble. Had a coffee today and flicked through Herald Sun which had a lift out for the start of the year. Every Victorian team analysed, not one based interstate. Only mention of Swans was Mick Mcguane's ladder prediction where he had us 10th for very shallow and ignorant reasons - skin deep as you describe. Used to annoy me but immune now - culture in Melbourne will never change. Can't see past Metropolitan area.

Never make the mistake of equating the Herald-Sun with the culture of Melbourne. Melbourne's footy culture is far more broadly-based than that. Ill-informed bogans (and those who inform them) are not the whole story.

[Swans2021]

Excellent post 2021(premiership year?). Melbourne journos in parochial bubble. Had a coffee today and flicked through Herald Sun which had a lift out for the start of the year. Every Victorian team analysed, not one based interstate. Only mention of Swans was Mick Mcguane's ladder prediction where he had us 10th for very shallow and ignorant reasons - skin deep as you describe. Used to annoy me but immune now - culture in Melbourne will never change. Can't see past Metropolitan area.

Thanks Blood Fever, this team is building nicely so 2021 seems about right. Many of our young guys will have around 24yrs and 100 odd games under their belts. Heeney will be coming off his first Brownlow. Buddy still primed but McCartin pushing up the forward ranks. Maybe JPK looking to go out on a high.

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I imagine Melbourne media tipping us for a wooden spoon in the year we win the premiership

[Blood Fever]

The collective media seem to be displaying their usual pessimistic view of the Swans' chances this year, even more so than in previous years. Most of them can't see past the bright AFL lights of Melbourne, so they'll swallow the cool-aid of Melbourne clubs, glance at the stats and continue to underestimate us. The collective view seems to be that i) we don't have the firepower forward and ii) our list is too young (or too old depending on the journo).

The former has been addressed. 2018 was a pretty tough year for our forward line. Our 2nd tall was the youngest player in the comp and Buddy was playing injured. We had a depleted midfield and ruck which cost us qualiyty inside 50s. Yet we still ended up just a kick away from a top 4 finish. This year we've got a fully fit Buddy, a fit Reid, added Menzel (when he's fit), Blakey and Sinclair may play more as a forward. We also have more experience in our young forwards this year. Hayward being the real stand out for mine.

The latter view is probably just a confusion of lazy journalism. While we do have a few older players who might have been largely replaced by a 26-28yr old crop by now, had we not been banned from trading for a period, we've had three years of list renewal and the new players, while mainly under 24 years old, are far more experienced on average than their peers in other teams. The key fact the footy columnists are missing is that we not only had the 2nd most players debut over the last 3 years but more importantly we got the most games of all into our debutants. Guys like Hayward, Papley, Ronke, McCartin and Florent didn't spend years on the fringe or in the NEAFL. They had their development fast-tracked. They played large blocks of contiguous games alongside polished veterans like McVeigh, Jack, Smith, Grundy, Buddy and Kennedy where they received continuous feedback (and some pointing) on all aspects of their game, surrounded by experienced leadership on the field. Hayward and Papley may have been playing just 5 years in total but they've gained 100 games of quality experience between them in that time. Florent had more games in two years than Jones had in three. McCartin got almost as many games in his first year as Clarke got in three years at North. Hayward almost as many games in two as Thurlow got in five years at Geelong. Heeney is less than a season off his first 100 games at only 22.

The media commentators might think a guy like Roarke Smith could pick up Isaac Heeney when he goes forward. After all, they're a similar age, debuted the same year and there's just 5cm height difference between them. Of course Beveridge will look a little closer than skin deep.

Excellent post 2021(premiership year?). Melbourne journos in parochial bubble. Had a coffee today and flicked through Herald Sun which had a lift out for the start of the year. Every Victorian team analysed, not one based interstate. Only mention of Swans was Mick Mcguane's ladder prediction where he had us 10th for very shallow and ignorant reasons - skin deep as you describe. Used to annoy me but immune now - culture in Melbourne will never change. Can't see past Metropolitan area.

[Swans2021]

The collective media seem to be displaying their usual pessimistic view of the Swans' chances this year, even more so than in previous years. Most of them can't see past the bright AFL lights of Melbourne, so they'll swallow the cool-aid of Melbourne clubs, glance at the stats and continue to underestimate us. The collective view seems to be that i) we don't have the firepower forward and ii) our list is too young (or too old depending on the journo).

The former has been addressed. 2018 was a pretty tough year for our forward line. Our 2nd tall was the youngest player in the comp and Buddy was playing injured. We had a depleted midfield and ruck which cost us qualiyty inside 50s. Yet we still ended up just a kick away from a top 4 finish. This year we've got a fully fit Buddy, a fit Reid, added Menzel (when he's fit), Blakey and Sinclair may play more as a forward. We also have more experience in our young forwards this year. Hayward being the real stand out for mine.

The latter view is probably just a confusion of lazy journalism. While we do have a few older players who might have been largely replaced by a 26-28yr old crop by now, had we not been banned from trading for a period, we've had three years of list renewal and the new players, while mainly under 24 years old, are far more experienced on average than their peers in other teams. The key fact the footy columnists are missing is that we not only had the 2nd most players debut over the last 3 years but more importantly we got the most games of all into our debutants. Guys like Hayward, Papley, Ronke, McCartin and Florent didn't spend years on the fringe or in the NEAFL. They had their development fast-tracked. They played large blocks of contiguous games alongside polished veterans like McVeigh, Jack, Smith, Grundy, Buddy and Kennedy where they received continuous feedback (and some pointing) on all aspects of their game, surrounded by experienced leadership on the field. Hayward and Papley may have been playing just 5 years in total but they've gained 100 games of quality experience between them in that time. Florent had more games in two years than Jones had in three. McCartin got almost as many games in his first year as Clarke got in three years at North. Hayward almost as many games in two as Thurlow got in five years at Geelong. Heeney is less than a season off his first 100 games at only 22.

The media commentators might think a guy like Roarke Smith could pick up Isaac Heeney when he goes forward. After all, they're a similar age, debuted the same year and there's just 5cm height difference between them. Of course Beveridge will look a little closer than skin deep.

[Markwebbos]

I don’t disagree re: 2016 GF but this is off topic. Could it please be discussed on a separate thread?

[goswannies]

I don't believe the league is conspiring against the Swans, but there is definitely some unconscious bias at play here. Those stats that stretch over many years and entirely different teams do not lie. Further, the 2016 GF was clearly unfairly adjudicated by biased umpires. They may not have meant it to be one-sided, but it was one-sided nonetheless.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=331aWvUaAmc

[Blue Sun]

Yes, I have seen those stats, but I don't think a persecution complex helps anyone. The stats are troubling, but not even remotely conclusive. There are legitimate concerns about the League's attitude to the Swans, but the idea that they are all conspiring against us at the highest level is just paranoid rubbish. We should devote our energies to dealing with real stuff, like CoLA and the academies. Every club has its disputes with AFL, and what we need is strong and consistent advocacy to ensure our voice is heard, not retreating into petty obsessions.

I don't believe the league is conspiring against the Swans, but there is definitely some unconscious bias at play here. Those stats that stretch over many years and entirely different teams do not lie. Further, the 2016 GF was clearly unfairly adjudicated by biased umpires. They may not have meant it to be one-sided, but it was one-sided nonetheless.

[stevoswan]

Yes, I have seen those stats, but I don't think a persecution complex helps anyone. The stats are troubling, but not even remotely conclusive. There are legitimate concerns about the League's attitude to the Swans, but the idea that they are all conspiring against us at the highest level is just paranoid rubbish. We should devote our energies to dealing with real stuff, like CoLA and the academies. Every club has its disputes with AFL, and what we need is strong and consistent advocacy to ensure our voice is heard, not retreating into petty obsessions.

"Yes, I have seen those stats, but I don't think a persecution complex helps anyone." ......because the league ignores the concerns of anyone outside of Victoria.

"There are legitimate concerns about the League's attitude to the Swans, but the idea that they are all conspiring against us at the highest level is just paranoid rubbish." ......2016 GF....case rested. Their 'not conspiring against us' cost us a premiership!

"We should devote our energies to dealing with real stuff, like CoLA and the academies." ....well COLA is gone, never to return but I agree with you on the academies.

"Every club has its disputes with AFL, and what we need is strong and consistent advocacy to ensure our voice is heard, not retreating into petty obsessions." ......some disputes are warranted, (the way we are adjudicated) some are just petty opportunism (Eddie McGuire on just about everything). A GF loss and consistent loss of free kick counts due to cheating umpires is not a 'petty obsession'.....it's about avoiding the prospect of all our future efforts to win a premiership being a waste of time.....

It's all about that ol' chestnut....'a level playing field.'

[Blue Sun]

She's missing one significant point; we won't get an armchair rid from the umpires like the premiers have over the last four years.

The umpiring in the 2017 and 2018 GFs were fine.

[AB Swannie]

I am pretty bullish about this season but I think the key will revolve around our form at home. In our first 10 rounds, we play five teams at home who are very strong (Adelaide, Melbourne, GWS, Essendon, Collingwood). Compare this to the away games of Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Richmond, Lions, and North Melbourne.

I would expect us to win at least three of our away games and more likely four but I am really unsure of the home games. If we can regain our edge at the SCG and be 7-3 or 6-4 by round 10, I give ourselves a great chance.

[Legs Akimbo]

Yes, I have seen those stats, but I don't think a persecution complex helps anyone. The stats are troubling, but not even remotely conclusive. There are legitimate concerns about the League's attitude to the Swans, but the idea that they are all conspiring against us at the highest level is just paranoid rubbish. We should devote our energies to dealing with real stuff, like CoLA and the academies. Every club has its disputes with AFL, and what we need is strong and consistent advocacy to ensure our voice is heard, not retreating into petty obsessions.

I wouldn't describe it as a petty obsession. The bias is evident in the statistics and 3 years ago almost certainly cost us a premiership (the league had their own enquiry, foundung the umpiring was not acceptable).

What's not certain is why this happens. I really don't think it is our game style. My theory is that it is response bias. There is always crap in the media about our lock down style. Umps see what they expect to see. An example was the recent farce where league cracked down on holding...

Category: | Herald Sun

Or maybe maybe umpires are like bulls when they see red.

[Bloods05]

Clearly you haven't seen the stats on frees for/against over the last decade. It was published on here about a year ago. We were on the bottom, and by a country mile.

Yes, I have seen those stats, but I don't think a persecution complex helps anyone. The stats are troubling, but not even remotely conclusive. There are legitimate concerns about the League's attitude to the Swans, but the idea that they are all conspiring against us at the highest level is just paranoid rubbish. We should devote our energies to dealing with real stuff, like CoLA and the academies. Every club has its disputes with AFL, and what we need is strong and consistent advocacy to ensure our voice is heard, not retreating into petty obsessions.

[S.S. Bleeder]

The siege mentality doesn't really get us anywhere. It's good to have a vent now and then, but the idea that the umpires systematically favour one side is frankly ridiculous. Move on to more substantive things.

Clearly you haven't seen the stats on frees for/against over the last decade. It was published on here about a year ago. We were on the bottom, and by a country mile.