The final countdown - 3 games remaining

[Maltopia]

True, but my thinking is their real challenge comes towards the end when they'll have players back, Blues and Dees are both home games, and they have a substantial percentage lead on us. But agree, still a possibility.

But it won't matter if we have one or more Jekyll and Hyde performances and lose games we 'should' win. Adelaide have improved recently so we need to not take them for granted, then it is only four more games to navigate.

[Danzar]

I think Brisbane is just as likely as the Dees to slip out of the top four.

They have a derby vs Gold Coast Suns with multiple team changes post COVID. Then away vs Richmond who will be desperately fighting to stay in the eight.

Also have Carlton, Saints and then Melbourne.

If they drop two and we win all of ours, we overtake them. They could also lose three of their final five.

True, but my thinking is their real challenge comes towards the end when they'll have players back, Blues and Dees are both home games, and they have a substantial percentage lead on us. But agree, still a possibility.

[Maltopia]

Best prospect to steal fourth from is Dees from here. Freo has the better math (they only need to lose one whereas Dees need to lose two) but Dees have the much harder run home. And Freo have two games they could win with a big margin and percentage boost. Percentage is the key consideration for all teams regardless. We're ahead of Freo but behind Dees on percentage. We need to nail a big win to open up both options. If we win the remaining five on tight margins, we can't overtake Dees and we run the risk of Freo still taking fourth even if they drop a game.

Freo next five
Tigers - likely win but could be a danger game for them, Tigers will have a lot to play (and atone) for.
Dees - likely win
Dogs - win
Eagles - percentage win
Giants - percentage win

Dees next five (assumes win in today's game v Port
Dogs - win
Freo - danger game, likely loss
Pies - danger game, likely win
Blues - danger game, likely win
Lions - danger game, likely loss

Swans next five
Crows - percentage win
Giants - win
North - percentage win
Pies - danger game, likely win
Saints - win

I think Brisbane is just as likely as the Dees to slip out of the top four.

They have a derby vs Gold Coast Suns with multiple team changes post COVID. Then away vs Richmond who will be desperately fighting to stay in the eight.

Also have Carlton, Saints and then Melbourne.

If they drop two and we win all of ours, we overtake them. They could also lose three of their final five.

[Danzar]

Best prospect to steal fourth from is Dees from here. Freo has the better math (they only need to lose one whereas Dees need to lose two) but Dees have the much harder run home. And Freo have two games they could win with a big margin and percentage boost. Percentage is the key consideration for all teams regardless. We're ahead of Freo but behind Dees on percentage. We need to nail a big win to open up both options. If we win the remaining five on tight margins, we can't overtake Dees and we run the risk of Freo still taking fourth even if they drop a game.

Freo next five
Tigers - likely win but could be a danger game for them, Tigers will have a lot to play (and atone) for.
Dees - likely win
Dogs - win
Eagles - percentage win
Giants - percentage win

Dees next five (assumes win in today's game v Port
Dogs - win
Freo - danger game, likely loss
Pies - danger game, likely win
Blues - danger game, likely win
Lions - danger game, likely loss

Swans next five
Crows - percentage win
Giants - win
North - percentage win
Pies - danger game, likely win
Saints - win

[barry]

We don't want to finish outside top 4 again like last year. Too many good teams in the bottom half of the 8. Go swans