Season Mid Point - Where Will We Finish?

[Matimbo]

After 12 rounds, we have 7 wins, 1 draw and a bye for 30 points. Looking at the rest of the season draw, here is my assessment ...

1. Expect to win: Adelaide, GC, Lions - assume we win 3/3
2. Favoured to win: WB (@SCG), Freo (@SCG), Bombers (away) - assume we win 2/3
3. Even money or slight underdogs: Blues (away), St Kilda (ANZ) - assume we win 1/2
4. Tough ask: Pies (ANZ), Geelong (away) - assume we lose both

My assumptions add up to only 6 wins for 2nd half which is a bit pessimistic. I think 14 wins is the minimum usually required for top 4, but 15 would be safer. To get 15, we need another 7 wins plus a draw. So we need 1.5 extra from categories 2-4 than I have given.

Can we do it?

Pros: Team is really starting combine well; injury list improving nicely
Cons: Not putting sides to the sword (except Lions); not kicking straight; not beating top sides so far

My prediction: Another 7 wins, to finish on 14.5 wins and 4th spot.

Your thoughts?

[Matimbo]

Dear Ed ... I just noticed the "Run Home" thread. Probably can merge this thread I started with it (not sure if I can do this?).

[sharp9]

If we beat Carlton this week we will finish 3rd or 4th (depending on whether Hawthorn can cope with their outs). If we lose to Carlton we will finish 5th or 6th. Done.

BIG GAME THIS WEEK!!!!!!!!

[TheHood]

Great assessment Matimbo.
It's that time of the year where you go into every game thinking this game will show exactly where we're at.
I think the Carlton game is a great example. The Blues are the minimum Top 4 standard.
Injury excuses are all but gone and the TEAM form is looking better.
I think if we don't perform against Carlton, then we're bottom of the 8 material.
If we perform well or even get over them, this will set the Swans up for 2011.

[ugg]

If we beat Carlton this week we will finish 3rd or 4th (depending on whether Hawthorn can cope with their outs). If we lose to Carlton we will finish 5th or 6th. Done.

BIG GAME THIS WEEK!!!!!!!!

I didn't realise that the rest of the season could be reduced to the microcosm of the Carlton game.

[Untamed Snark]

I didn't realise that the rest of the season could be reduced to the microcosm of the Carlton game.

It happens every week,

[msb]

If we beat Carlton this week we will finish 3rd or 4th (depending on whether Hawthorn can cope with their outs). If we lose to Carlton we will finish 5th or 6th. Done.

BIG GAME THIS WEEK!!!!!!!!

Yes I agree, for any chance of top 4 WE MUST BEAT CARLTON! The eagles will romp it home against port which will leave us half a game behind them if we lose to carlton before the collingwood game, which will be a loss. Massive, Massive game.

[Melbournehammer]

After 12 rounds, we have 7 wins, 1 draw and a bye for 30 points. Looking at the rest of the season draw, here is my assessment ...

1. Expect to win: Adelaide, GC, Lions - assume we win 3/3
2. Favoured to win: WB (@SCG), Freo (@SCG), Bombers (away) - assume we win 2/3
3. Even money or slight underdogs: Blues (away), St Kilda (ANZ) - assume we win 1/2
4. Tough ask: Pies (ANZ), Geelong (away) - assume we lose both

My assumptions add up to only 6 wins for 2nd half which is a bit pessimistic. I think 14 wins is the minimum usually required for top 4, but 15 would be safer. To get 15, we need another 7 wins plus a draw. So we need 1.5 extra from categories 2-4 than I have given.

Can we do it?

Pros: Team is really starting combine well; injury list improving nicely
Cons: Not putting sides to the sword (except Lions); not kicking straight; not beating top sides so far

My prediction: Another 7 wins, to finish on 14.5 wins and 4th spot.

Your thoughts?

I think you are missing a game as well - richmond away.

btw I reckon we have a pretty hard draw from here. I'm not even sure I'd be putting adelaide in as an expect to win. I'd have that as favoured to win. i think we are much more likely to be the dogs at home than we are to beat the crows away.

Richmond at the MCG we really should be favoured to win as well but by that stage it will come down to what sort of momentum has been generated and whether we have a forward line which can kick enough goals.

I'm still in the - lets just get to 11.5 and with a bit of luck that'll get us in the eight camp and with a fraction of luck build from there. i can see us (i really hope not but i think it is not at all impossible) dropping three games in a row here and being right in the middle of the ruck

as far as I'm concerned lets take it one week at a time and build towards a finals spot.

[Cpt. Kirk]

This is my changes to your list.

1.Expect to win: Adelaide, GC, Lions, WB, Freo, Bombers, Richmond.
2.Favoured to win: St kilda
3. Even Money: Blues
4. Tough ask: Pies, Geelong

Freo is crippled by injuries and imo mundy is as big a loss as sanderlands sets up a lot of their run and barlow will never be as good as what he was before his broken leg.
St Kilda will be difficult to beat they are starting to look like their former selves again.
Essendons hype at the start of the year has ended with a long injury list and they play too many talls.
WB are terrible this year, catchya later rocket.
Adelaide and GC scare me a bit they both can look very strong in periods and if they can put it together for a whole game they can be dangerous.

[Bas]

St Kilda are nothing like their former self unless there has been a dramatic change since last Friday night.

The key to winning the GF is the team with the least injuries and zero injuries to key players.

Using that as a key, we are in fine form.

Speaking of form, being in great playing form is the other key. The Swans have not shown that so far this year and yet sit 5th on the ladder. The Lions game showed some form but if you compare stats of first and second half and I think we only kicked 4 goals after half time. Form dropped off.

Therefore a top 4 finish is very possible IF and it is a Big IF the Swans cam hit some really good form in the run home to the finals. I still don't think that the team has players settled in positions that best suit the team overall. This is not a coaches fault its the development of the team as it improves. It will happen.

We may not beat the Pies or Cats but if nothing, the team will get further valuable experience which will benefit next year.

Next two weeks will be very important as Melbourne radio yesterday had the Blues as Grand Finalists.

I think the Swans will lose the next two or a very narrow win against Blues at best.

Did I tell you I got 8/8 tips again this week.

[Go Swannies]

I think these next two games show us where we are. I think the Blues are 50:50. We can't kick as badly as we have the past few weeks and Goodes is due to lift. If we are building towards finals a win here will set us up very well.

The Pies? I so hope we win but I've thought that year after year. If, and that's a huge if, we win we will finish Top 4 (Hawks will probably drop without Roughie and the Blues will be revealed as fragile if we beat them). So we need to get a win either here or down at Kardinia Park to not waste a good year.

Or we may lose both, as the whole of Melbourne expects, and will just make up the numbers in September.

[Nich]

Did I tell you I got 8/8 tips again this week.

Bas I tipped 8/8 and forgot to put my margins in and was ranked 23,454 for this round on the AFL site. Great effort but last week was pretty easy! The next 2 weeks are much tougher.