2024 List Management

[liz]

That's what i thought re Hayward being a RFA, so was confused with the talk generated by John Ralph of 2 x 1st rounders being potentially on the table.

Any pick compensation for Hayward would then be determined by the AFL (should we not match bid). Despite the compensation formula being based on length & $$$$ of contract, they tend to offer bigger compensation to bottom clubs than those in top 4 (Hawthorn only got pick 18 for Buddy).

Anyhow this is all speculation at this stage, as i'm also in the keep Hayward camp. Confident he will re-sign for couple years till he is a UFA whist we're in premiership window & is currently in our best 22.

I imagine the most Hayward might attract is a band 2 pick if he exercises FA and the Swans don't match. If he gets a band 1 pick, there is something seriously wrong with the system. I think Gresham attracted a band 2 pick and he's probably a comparable level player to Gresham. That would give a pick at the end of the first round.

The Hawks did get a band 1 compensation pick for Franklin, but because they won the premiership that year, it was effectively an end of first round pick.

I'd prefer to keep Hayward too, but decent quality free agents are pretty rare, and there are several clubs with oodles of salary cap space, so who knows?

[caj23]

Syd76,
I am with you on this. KB has been outstanding over the years and rarely has had a pick in the top ten. His ability to find diamonds deep into the draft is one of the main reasons why we have been so successful over the long term. That combined with good coaching and stable management is all part of it.
One day caj23 may say something positive about club, but I wouldn’t hold your breath on that one.

Interested to see how you rate his first round non academy picks because frankly they’ve been pretty poor (a trend that followed him from Brisbane). Difficult to argue otherwise

While the later pick diamonds have been great they’ve been necessary to make up for earlier misses.

Overall I think he’s been pretty good, I just don’t trust his strike rate when he has an early pick, he tries to be clever instead of keeping it simple

[giant]

That's what i thought re Hayward being a RFA, so was confused with the talk generated by John Ralph of 2 x 1st rounders being potentially on the table.

Any pick compensation for Hayward would then be determined by the AFL (should we not match bid). Despite the compensation formula being based on length & $$$$ of contract, they tend to offer bigger compensation to bottom clubs than those in top 4 (Hawthorn only got pick 18 for Buddy).

Anyhow this is all speculation at this stage, as i'm also in the keep Hayward camp. Confident he will re-sign for couple years till he is a UFA whist we're in premiership window & is currently in our best 22.

It's not that unusual for RFA deals to end up as trades, Dangerfield to the Cats being an example.

[707]

It's not that unusual for RFA deals to end up as trades, Dangerfield to the Cats being an example.

It is unusual, only Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron spring to mind? Happy to hear of others that I may have forgotten.

[Syd76]

I guess that Logan McDonald comes to mind.... even though Mills, Blakey, Campbell and Heeney are all academy players KB still needed to work out whether they were worthy of that pick (to match). I'm sick and tired of people bagging KB... we are all wise after the event. I have gone through and have summarised the picks since 2008. So i dont agree with you caj23. In fact your comment is without foundation. Lets go through the drafts..... (ignoring trades and rookies)

Since 2008 the following were top 10 picks:
2008 - None (first pick was at 12 Lewis Johnstone - BUST) - the draft delivered Hannebery at 30. A tick of approval from me
2009 - Gary Rohan at 6 (certainly not a bust)... Lewis Jetta at 14 .. Sam Reid at 40.. TDL at 56. A very good draft haul
2010 - First pick was Jed Lamb at 21.. this was the compromised Gold Coast draft. Luke Parker at 40 (on the basis of Mickey O's recommendation from the AIS and the AJ at 56 or 57). You can argue that Lamb turned out to be poor, but KB certainly redeemed himself. Pick 21 is not an early pick.
2011 - First pick at 21 - Tom Mitchell ... this was the GWS compromised draft. Certainly not a bust. Pick 21 not an early pick.
2012 - First pick 22 - Dean Towers. Ok he didn't set the world on fire but was serviceable. Membrey and Harry Marsh were the other picks. Pick 22 not an early pick.
2013 - First pick 15 Zak Jones. Serviceable. Not a bust and not great either. George Hewett pick 32. Nankervis and Aliir
2014 - First pick 18 - Heeney.. need I say more
2015 - First pick 3 - Callum Mills.. need we say more
2016 - First pick 11 - Oliver Florent... need we say more.. but Jy Simpkin was picked next. Will Hayward pick 21. Definitively not a bust.
2017 - First pick 14 - Matthew Ling BUST.. this is the draft where Sydney and KB had a bad one.. Zac Baily, Ed Richards, Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor went afterwards
2018 - First pick 10 - Nick Blakey.. need we say more.. Rowbottom 25, McInerney 44
2019 - First pick 5 - Dylan Stephens BUST - lovely guy but here KB picked wrongly. We all know the story so lets not revisit. Will Gould, E Taylor and C Warner
2020 - First Pick 4 Logan, Pick 5 Campbell... need we say more... Grainger Barass was at 6 .. it took guts to select Logan ahead of a more pressing need of a backman... oh and Errol was 32
2021 - First Pick 18 - Gus Sheldrick.. will be a fine player.. Matt Roberts at 34.. also fine
2022 - First Pick 20 Jacob Kostanty.. unlikely and possible bust.. but too early to tell. Anyway Pick 20 is not an early pick.
2023 - First Pick 16 - Will Green - too early to tell.. KPP - they take longer to develop.

So to summarise all first picks under 20:
BUSTS: there are 4 (Stephens Ling Johnstone and Vezspremi - I have included him as I think he was one of KB's... but not sure when KB joined the Swans .. it was either 2007 or 2008)
ABOVE AVERAGE/GREAT: there are 9 (Rohan, Jetta, Heeney, Mills, Florent, Blakey, McDonald, Campbell?, Sheldrick)
SERVICEABLE: there are 2 (Jones/Campbell? - we are all hoping he will end up higher... but not sure as yet).

I would take this hit rate any day of the week... for comparison one only needs to have a look at other clubs over that period (save for Geelong). KB's magic is also worked in the lower end of the drafts... where he exceeds all other recruiters.. including Stephen Wells.

[liz]

Veszpremi was not a Beatson pick. He'd only recently joined the club and was in a consultant role only. It was Stuey Maxfield who was enamored by Veszpremi. I'm not sure how responsible Beatson was for Johnstone either. He was probably more integrated into the club, and might have had more influence by then, but maybe not enough to be the main decision maker. Regardless, I think Johnstone was the right pick for us based on what we needed and what Johnstone had shone as a junior.

Ling might have been a fine player had his body allowed him to be. It's hard to account for injury. Though the players you list who were picked soon after - especially Richards and Bailey - would have been nice. (Not that Taylor wouldn't have been nice too, but he was never going to be a first round pick. Allen is a quality player, but I don't know that a tall forward was a list priority then. Tippett retired just a few months after that draft, but I can't recall if it was known that his body was shot at that point. Possibly it was.)

Interestingly, Stephen Wells also has a pretty ordinary record with first round picks. Like us, most of Geelong's have been in the teens. Players like Darcy Lang, Jackson Thurlow and Billy Smedts stack up well against Beatson's picks in a similar range. It is the ability of both clubs to find gems at the back end of the draft and especially in the rookie draft, and then to develop them patiently, that has kept them so consistently competitive.

And I don't believe Geelong has a list of ex-players now at other clubs to rival ours. While we might rue letting some of those go, or losing them despite wanting to keep them, they are testament to how good the drafting and development of the club has been over the last decade and a bit.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Nothing is in isolation re list management

web of solutions

win some loose some via all pathways to recruitment.

our timing of trades / free agents has been very helpful for the 2024 season...........3 of the 4 traded in players playing most week bar injury.........JJ a good link but under pressure as the cavalry return. Patch getting there bit by bit. Still a bit clunky........Brodie on fire.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Re Wilbur, it’s really going to come down to his desire to stay, as you can guarantee if he does, he will be leaving somewhere between $750k and $1m on the table. We will have a fair offer in front of him for a regular first 22 (but bottom 11, if that makes sense). My guess is something between $600-700k averaged over the life of the deal - something like four years. From what I understand, that reflects the reality of the new salary cap for a player of his ilk - a bit above the new median.

To get him out, Adelaide or Port will probably be throwing an extra $125-200k at him, and maybe an extra year. (Plus, the pull of home.)

We won’t be matching it, as my understanding is we’ve now done the hard work to get our cap in order. We’ve provisioned for the young stars we have coming through, used tenure over average annual salary as an incentive for players from Blakey and Mills to Jordon and McLean, pulled Grundy, Adams and Jordon into the club at relative discount to the new standard, and still have room for a lash at the right player.

It only takes one or two deals to blow up the balancing act. And I say that as someone who hopes he stays. But that’ll be the choice in front of him.

[rickmat]

Personally , I don't have an issue with Hayward leaving if the Swans get a good deal with draft pick/s. I feel Hayward is not going to get better and currently seems to hold up the way we play on many occasions. Sure he gets goals but also is haphazard on his approach to kicking goals consistently. The way the Swans are now beginning to play and mature, Hayward may not fit the mould of the players we need. His salary , if he leaves, can help the Swans in securing those players we want to keep or secure to improve our side. If he feels he will get a better deal elsewhere, I would get the best deal we can.

[waswan]

Ollie 5yrs, thats a good signature

[i'm-uninformed2]

Here's the official news. Awesome to see what Ollie has done since his move to the backline. I used to worry what we were getting from him, but now love watching his dancing feet.

Good news.

Florent signs on long term

[Maltopia]

Great new re Florent.

Now Logan, Melican and Fox please