Changes for Round 18 V Western Bulldogs

[Robbo]

For those who watch the reserves, who is currently the better player out of Braba and Benny?

[NMWBloods]

Watch a replay of any of our games and you'll notice we do that time and time again. It infuriates me how so many of our players are unable to keep their footing.

We've been doing it for decades and decades!

[Jewels]

I'd like them to change their boots. The number of times they slipped over on Saturday was ridiculous. I know it rained on Friday but the Crows seemed to manage to keep their feet much better than our players.

Watch a replay of any of our games and you'll notice we do that time and time again. It infuriates me how so many of our players are unable to keep their footing.

[AussieAnge]

I'd like them to change their boots. The number of times they slipped over on Saturday was ridiculous. I know it rained on Friday but the Crows seemed to manage to keep their feet much better than our players.

[hammo]

I agree with SimonH's posts re Fossie and Grundy.

I don't understand why Grundy isn't played in his preferred position, especially with our forwards falling like flies. Hopefully this week he gets his chance.

As for Fosdike, as I have said in another thread I think, if Malceski can come straight back into the senior side after revolutionary knee surgery, then there is no reason why the best runner at the club shouldn't also come straight back in.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Apologies if it's already been mentioned, but the way of replacing 'make a contest' Henry seems obvious to me: Luke Brennan to do whatever Grundy was doing in the back-line, and Grundy to play in his best position: a traditional full-forward. Even though the SCG might be a postage stamp, I saw enough on the weekend to reinforce my confidence that Grundy really has improved his pace in 2008 and defenders won't just be able to waltz off him if he doesn't take the mark.

I reckon the issue with Grundy is this - up forward, he gets lazy, turns one-dimensional, game watches and can go a bit astray. Down back, he is forced to keep his mind on the job and use the assets he has - a good kick, competitive in the contest, good fitness, and can focus on what's ahead

[liz]

So are you saying we shouldn't give Brabazon a chance?

I'd be pretty pissed if we put 3 years of development into him without giving him a shot.

Those were just my observations based on three+ years of watching all our young'uns in close to every home game they've played and a spattering of Canberra games. I make no claims to be anything other than an amateur enthusiast. But after watching players over an extended period of time you get some feel for their development and their attributes.

At the start of the season, at the pre-season dinner, the coaches commented that they expected Brabazon to play some senior footy this year. But we're 3/4 of the way through the season, have suffered significant injuries and have very little running around in the twos at the moment other than first year players at an early stage in their development. I suspect Brabazon is closer to becoming the player he is capable of becoming than either O'Dwyer or Smith and yet those two have been given the odd senior chance and Brabazon hasn't. He may yet get a chance in the remainder of the season and surprise us with a Barlow-style debut. But he's running of out time and hasn't even been named yet as an emergency this year.

[smasher]

I would not drop Spida this weekend.He will be playing against his little brother.
I would just put him in front of goals and leave him there hoping he would pull down a few marks and kick us a couple.
RLT could help out Jolly,giving him a break,or why not give White another crack.

[SimonH]

So are you saying we shouldn't give Brabazon a chance?

I'd be pretty pissed if we put 3 years of development into him without giving him a shot.

But that's like saying that we put 3 years of development into Willoughby (or however many years into Smokey Davis, Earl Shaw, McGlone etc etc) and 'never gave them a shot'. On the contrary, they were given chances for an extended period to show that they could make it at the top level, and the club's assessment was that they wouldn't. If a guy in 40+ reserves games (and a whole bunch of training) ultimately doesn't impress you as having the goods, then the likelihood that 1 or 2 senior AFL games are going to change your mind, is pretty thin.

Why pick them up/keep them on the list at all, then? Indeed. If drafting (and for that matter list management) were an exact science, we'd all be millionaires with overflowing trophy cabinets. Ever since Anthony Banik (#1 draft pick, uncontroversially, circa 1990-- he was the best 18yo in the country-- played about 37 games of AFL and then settled down to being what he was: a good-standard SANFL player), clubs have realised that you're almost universally not drafting the player for the standard they can play at now, but for the player you hope they'll become in the future. That's always going to be a pretty damn inexact science.

I ain't seen Brabazon. And I hope he does make it, as I do with all youngsters busting a gut for us. Just sayin' that the argument don't hold much water.

[Robbo]

Other than (as Hammo points out above) people not really saying that about Schmidt before he made his debut, the stand-out difference between Schmidt and Brabazon at reserves level is that Schmidt wins his own ball and Brabazon rarely does. He hovers on the outside of packs waiting for it to be fed to him. Those types of players have a place at senior level but only if they have either very good pace so they can carry the ball and break the lines or they have exquisite, penetrating disposal so they can break the lines with a long kick (ala Malceski before this latest knee injury). Brabazon doesn't really possess either of these qualities.

So are you saying we shouldn't give Brabazon a chance?

I'd be pretty pissed if we put 3 years of development into him without giving him a shot.

[SimonH]

Fosdike come straight back in to the firsts? Get real people! He missed all the pre-season and has played intermittently in the seconds. He will need 4 weeks just to get his touch back. I like Fossie, but he has never looked a natural, so will definitely need time in the seconds.

If Fosdike's hammie comes up 100% a hard last training session, then it might be time to roll the dice. A big call after getting burnt playing an unfit player, I know. But 'let's just give a shot to [insert name of another undebuted kid from the 2nds]' is a little naive, I think, in circumstances where we will have newbies MOD, Bird, Jack and quite possibly Smith in our 22. We don't want Bevan to be one of the leadership group by default, just yet.

Fosdike has played 7 reserves games this year, and so his residual fitness base shouldn't be terrible. If he's assessed as being able to run hard for 60% of the game, that should be enough not to affect other rotations too badly.

Apologies if it's already been mentioned, but the way of replacing 'make a contest' Henry seems obvious to me: Luke Brennan to do whatever Grundy was doing in the back-line, and Grundy to play in his best position: a traditional full-forward. Even though the SCG might be a postage stamp, I saw enough on the weekend to reinforce my confidence that Grundy really has improved his pace in 2008 and defenders won't just be able to waltz off him if he doesn't take the mark.

[Seagoon]

Yeah wow great post Liz, i really enjoyed reading that. Thanks.

[hot potato]

You know your stuff Lizzie!!!

How's the Tea Lady's kicking skills.
Can she make an evasive swerve with the trolly??

[liz]

I'm pretty sure that's what people were saying about Schmidt before he made his debut in 2006.

Schmidt's skill level was very well regarded before his debut.

Other than (as Hammo points out above) people not really saying that about Schmidt before he made his debut, the stand-out difference between Schmidt and Brabazon at reserves level is that Schmidt wins his own ball and Brabazon rarely does. He hovers on the outside of packs waiting for it to be fed to him. Those types of players have a place at senior level but only if they have either very good pace so they can carry the ball and break the lines or they have exquisite, penetrating disposal so they can break the lines with a long kick (ala Malceski before this latest knee injury). Brabazon doesn't really possess either of these qualities.

Where Brabazon does stand out is his endurance levels. But although his endurance is elite at reserves level, meaning he is capable of being a game breaker towards the end of games simply by the amount of running he can do when others have tired, when he gets to senior level he's going to find his endurance is no longer elite. I suspect it would still be above average, especially for someone of his age, but he'll find he still has opponents more than capable of keeping up with him even at the end of games.

I think that's where those of us who regularly watch reserves struggle to see him becoming a senior player, certainly a long term senior player. It's just hard to see what weapons he has that can hurt at the elite level. I suspect he has the tools to be a very consistent player at a secondary level, and probably one of a higher standard than the ACTAFL. But there's a big gap between even WAFL/SANFL/VFL and the level required at AFL. He's certainly improved significantly in several areas since he joined the club, you can't fault his onfield work ethic and, from the change in his body shape, I suspect his off-field work ethic must be pretty good too. But sadly that's not enough.

If you compare him to other fringe players

O'Dwyer is notably quicker, is stronger overhead (though Brabazon's decent overhead for his size), probably isn't far behind endurance wise, is a better tackler, and while his disposals are erratic, his good kicks have more penetration than Brabazon's best (though this is another area I think Brabazon has improved markedly).

Smith wins the hard ball in the middle and around the ground, his kicking is far more reliable, he's probably of a similar footspeed, and he possesses intangible footy smarts than sometimes leave you scratching your head wondering how he did that.

Barlow has height, probably similar endurance (maybe better), and better footskills, though he either lacks Brabazon's onfield intensity/work ethic or hasn't yet realised when and where to run.

Bruce's endurance may not yet be at Brabazon's level but he looks like he's capable of reaching that level with another pre-season or two, he's stronger overhead and is a better kick. I think he has more natural instincts, too, to tackle and to get in and win his own ball.

Jack has greater footspeed, better penetration on his kicks and has improved his kicking consistency more than Brabazon. He's also a good tackler and has shown some ability even at senior level to win the odd clearance.

Laidlaw is quicker, much stronger overhead and a more penetrating kick (but lacks Brabazon's endurance - or at least, he did last year and it's hard to see how he's improved it this year given he's been injured most of the year).

There's no point comparing him to someone like Veszpremi who was in the elite level at underage. But all those guys above have come either via the rookie list or were latish picks. Therefore all had some NQR factors when they were drafted, which have been addressed with varyingly levels of success. And bear in mind that not all these guys are going to carve out long-term AFL careers. Indeed, other than Jack, there are have to be significant question marks over each of them, and even Jack still needs to keep on improving if he's going to become a permanent fixture in the team.

[hammo]

I'm pretty sure that's what people were saying about Schmidt before he made his debut in 2006.

Schmidt's skill level was very well regarded before his debut.