Are we contenders in 2012?

[Xie Shan]

^^ That's OK, it happens to the best of us from time to time! It's a tough gig, trying to predict what's going to happen in the future. Football commentators are a bit like stock market analysts in that they are trying to make sense out of something that's inherently uncertain, and will come up with all kinds of theories / reasons as to why team X will win the flag, or where the All Ords will be in 6 months' time...

Anyway, the belief in this group seems to be sky high at the moment and after a win like today's they would rightly be thinking that they can beat anyone, and I would agree with that! They have answered every challenge so far, Sam Reid being in good form has made a huge difference. Still, we do have a very tough run home finishing up with Geelong in Geelong so are no certainties to even finish in the top 4. I think by the time we play Collingwood (who I still think are the team to beat this year) things will be a lot clearer.

[desredandwhite]

Aaaaaand the answer is... "not really". I just got sucked in by one good win against Hawthorn!

I expect we will win enough games at home to sneak into the 8, maybe challenge for the 6.

I always felt this year was too early for us - the young guns that were killing it in the early rounds aren't all firing together at the moment - AJ, Parko, Hanners, Sammy etc etc. That's to be expected, they're just kids. There's plenty of improvement to come, which is great - but we won't be consistent enough to seriously challenge this year.

This is getting ridiculous. I get sucked in by a couple of 20+ point losses against Richmond and St Kilda, and the team goes undefeated after that to make me look stupid AND indecisive.

Reassess after Collingwood game.

[Hartijon]

I agree, we were crap generally all over the ground last week...but IMO , from watching this season unfold....we have a crap, hopscotch, patchwork forwardline... particually without Goodes there...
And until that's rectified, we can't claim to be serious contenders.

Agree and it reinforces my previous point.Sure we were crap everywhere but to be serious contenders (what this thread is about) we need a forward line.Bazza would have lead and screamed for the ball ,gone to the centre to get a kick and at least been a target.I think it was Mattner who twice had absolutely no one to kick to. That dents the backlines confidence and leads to short plays. TDL is a natural forward who leads and presents therefore as a target. I sympathise with our besieged backline who if they do get free have nowhere to go. Have a few forwards who get free,kick goals against the run of play and the whole momentum can change. Scoreboard pressure is the best forward pressure and watch a team surge after they get a few goals! All of a sudden the mids come alive,we have pace and run and the rest of the forward line starts to lead.Kicking more goals than the opposition is also how you win a game

[bodgie]

I agree White will be headed for the chop but he is a player who has suffered from our no forwards policy. When he gets a game it is primarily as a back up ruckman rotating to the bench and forward. He will only be effective given a good run of games to develop a unit along with Reid, TDL and whoever with the mids coming through. Our backs and mids get regular faith and time to develop and operate as a team. TDL as a sub was miserably disheartening before the game began.

If the coaches and the game in general means a distinct forward line plan is extinct then our options are few. Maybe the cycle will turn.

[GongSwan]

I agree that we need a key forward - we have needed that for a few years now really, as Jesse doesn't seem to be the answer and Reid needs help. However I think we are good for Jude replacements, with Parker from last year and Mitchell this year to join Hanners, Jack and JPK....

I was thinking more along the lines of experience, but I agree with yr point, we will be well served for in and under mids, I think we've been stuck a bit when we rushed to sign White on a false promise. Time to cut a few loose next year and look for a name in the forward line

[jono2707]

At teh end of this year, we need to find a key forward to run with Reid, and another midfielder who can play like Jude, but we need to keep building on the combinations between the younger players, once we get our best team back on the park we can start building for toward teh end of this year

I agree that we need a key forward - we have needed that for a few years now really, as Jesse doesn't seem to be the answer and Reid needs help. However I think we are good for Jude replacements, with Parker from last year and Mitchell this year to join Hanners, Jack and JPK....

[GongSwan]

Don't bring up the lack of pace, not many on here see it as an issue, but I agree with you, and since Rohan went out injured i've been hoping Harry would get a go, fair enough he's young and inexperienced, but he's quick and would help spread, I'd even say bring back Everitt, as long as he plays on a wing, away from the contested situation, and not in the forward line, just as an out from d50, transition to f50, Jetta can't be the only one in teh team doing this, it's just too much for one young bloke

[ernie koala]

Oh, stop it. We played 70% of the game in our defensive half. Locket and Hall would have had trouble kicking a goal from our defensive 50. The crap went over the whole ground, not just the forward line.

I agree, we were crap generally all over the ground last week...but IMO , from watching this season unfold....we have a crap, hopscotch, patchwork forwardline... particually without Goodes there...
And until that's rectified, we can't claim to be serious contenders.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

It's not as if this weeks loss should come as a huge surprise.

Our big problem remains a lack of pace, in fact we have the exact same lack of pace now as we did in 2009 (when we recruited Rohan, Jetta and Sumner to alleviate it).

Then as now our midfield were being exposed for pace both ways.

When they have the ball our opponents spread faster than us, giving them "cheap" goals. Of course when we have the ball our players are preassurised by their opponents into taking poor options and making skill errors.

The problem is as simple and as insoluble as that. And while we can get away with our lack of pace if our opponents can't (or won't) match us for intensity, if they do then we can be beaten.

Just as the recruitments of 2009 helped boost our pace, the injuries of 2012 (especially Rohan and Goodes) have stipped that boost away.

As for the lack of intensity, I have no idea whether it's apparent or actual, only the team can know that.

[caj23]

Frog was commenting on the specific quote 'contenders don't lose to middle of the road teams' when he pointed out that 2 of the most dominant teams from a H&A perspective in the past 20 years both lost their only games to 'middle of the road sides' or worse.

In '95 we absolutely pumped Carlton on a Fri night at the SCG by 12 goals, inflicting their first loss of the season with Plugger giving Silvagni a nice old touch up. Great night and I was hoarse for days.

At no time did Frog say we are anywhere near their standard, just that good sides, even great sides, do get beaten occasionally when they are expected to win...

You and Frog are just took a small part of my post and rebutted it just for the sake of disagreeing with me. The fact is that those two teams were 9-0, we are 6 - 3, the situations are not comparable, so I don't know what the point of the comment was.

Watch Collingwood, West Coast and Essendon this year and see how many games they drop against the St Kildas and Richmonds of the league and you'll see where the Swans sit in 2012

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

Most teams know by now that the Swans mids ARE our forwards, so if they beat us there, they win the game. End of story.

Such a simple but accurate answer.

Our gameplan was pulled apart by radelaide and the tigers, we were found out and now all opposition coaching staff have to do is watch these two games and now the saints game and presto. It's too easy me thinks.

[Dosser]

Most teams know by now that the Swans mids ARE our forwards, so if they beat us there, they win the game. End of story.

[GongSwan]

Oh, stop it. We played 70% of the game in our defensive half. Locket and Hall would have had trouble kicking a goal from our defensive 50. The crap went over the whole ground, not just the forward line.

Zackly, when the mids get dominated our forwards don't matter at all, although i don't think they worked hard enough (bar Mcglynn) to provide a way out of the back 50 and slow the game down. Our backline, while under siege for incredibly long periods still stood up and created enough pressure that they missed easy shots. Let's not all abandon ship just yet, while our mids need to lift, they are mostly younger players and even if they have some bad games for whatever reason, the talent is there and we need to keep them playing as a unit with an eye to the future. We can't just keep sending Jude and ROK in there to save the day, they are getting on in football terms and need to be used sparingly in the middle. I agree starting TDL as the sub was not a tactical masterstroke, but how much difference would it have made? It's time to start using one midfielder each week as teh sub and rotating them to keep them freshened up a little. At teh end of this year, we need to find a key forward to run with Reid, and another midfielder who can play like Jude, but we need to keep building on the combinations between the younger players, once we get our best team back on the park we can start building for toward teh end of this year

[Frog]

Spot on. Although it is a very even competition this year which makes it "Anybody's Flag" at this stage we don't have much hope with our current forward line to go deep into September. Three things make me pessimistic

1.The decision to make TDL the sub.......clueless!We are still not "getting it"
2. Playing an out of form KPP in the Forwards ....not helpful to winning a game and I find the excuse that an out of form player attracts a good defender to be the epitomy of negativity that gives the end result of losing games.

3.With the even competition ,if we don't play at our best anybody can beat us and the lack of enthusiasm is a real worry.What's wrong?

Oh, stop it. We played 70% of the game in our defensive half. Locket and Hall would have had trouble kicking a goal from our defensive 50. The crap went over the whole ground, not just the forward line.

[Melbourne_Blood]

Occasionally as in twice in three weeks? or, arguably, three times in 4 weeks?